Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 10 2020 | 5223 | 32829 | 166 | 35 | 1378 | 1781 |
| November 11 2020 | 5292 | 33089 | 169 | 35 | 1332 | 1761 |
| November 12 2020 | 5475 | 33491 | 173 | 34 | 1380 | 1819 |
| November 13 2020 | 5542 | 33668 | 183 | 35 | 1317 | 1804 |
| November 14 2020 | 5626 | 33990 | 189 | 40 | 1310 | 1781 |
| November 15 2020 | 5865 | 34361 | 192 | 40 | 1309 | 1905 |
| November 16 2020 | 6149 | 34583 | 193 | 42 | 1433 | 2054 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 5.0 | 3.4% | 49 | 0.43% | 71 | 0.62% |
| 10-19 | 41 | 20.7 | 15.3% | 219 | 1.61% | 294 | 2.16% |
| 20-29 | 77 | 36.7 | 24.7% | 354 | 1.69% | 480 | 2.29% |
| 30-39 | 48 | 22.6 | 15.9% | 228 | 1.68% | 337 | 2.48% |
| 40-49 | 38 | 17.9 | 12.4% | 177 | 1.69% | 263 | 2.51% |
| 50-59 | 35 | 17.6 | 11.4% | 164 | 1.31% | 257 | 2.05% |
| 60-69 | 21 | 15.3 | 9.8% | 140 | 1.22% | 187 | 1.62% |
| 70+ | 16 | 9.7 | 7.1% | 102 | 0.97% | 165 | 1.58% |
| All ages | 284 | 145.4 | 100% | 1433 | 1.37% | 2054 | 1.96% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 10 2020 | 2984 | 20425 | 85 | 31 | 1045 | 1403 |
| November 11 2020 | 3086 | 20589 | 86 | 33 | 1128 | 1401 |
| November 12 2020 | 3223 | 20752 | 92 | 35 | 1190 | 1434 |
| November 13 2020 | 3358 | 20857 | 95 | 36 | 1230 | 1493 |
| November 14 2020 | 3438 | 21032 | 99 | 36 | 1178 | 1499 |
| November 15 2020 | 3511 | 21197 | 102 | 38 | 1077 | 1553 |
| November 16 2020 | 3580 | 21319 | 104 | 41 | 976 | 1547 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.7 | 2.9% | 28 | 0.36% | 43 | 0.55% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 8.7 | 8.1% | 79 | 0.94% | 112 | 1.33% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 17.3 | 15.5% | 151 | 2.12% | 235 | 3.3% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 21.6 | 18.5% | 181 | 2.15% | 298 | 3.55% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 20.6 | 18% | 176 | 2.27% | 292 | 3.76% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 17.0 | 16% | 156 | 1.61% | 254 | 2.62% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 14.4 | 13.3% | 130 | 1.55% | 199 | 2.37% |
| 70+ | 7 | 9.1 | 7.7% | 75 | 1.05% | 114 | 1.6% |
| All ages | 69 | 111.4 | 100% | 976 | 1.51% | 1547 | 2.39% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 10 2020 | 1991 | 13246 | 76 | 14 | 710 | 898 |
| November 11 2020 | 2053 | 13374 | 80 | 14 | 733 | 921 |
| November 12 2020 | 2128 | 13524 | 82 | 28 | 740 | 950 |
| November 13 2020 | 2184 | 13590 | 88 | 29 | 760 | 961 |
| November 14 2020 | 2397 | 13804 | 92 | 30 | 903 | 1116 |
| November 15 2020 | 2641 | 13993 | 97 | 30 | 1055 | 1321 |
| November 16 2020 | 2721 | 14032 | 98 | 30 | 1036 | 1333 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 4.1 | 3.6% | 37 | 0.68% | 53 | 0.98% |
| 10-19 | 14 | 9.7 | 9.4% | 97 | 1.79% | 130 | 2.39% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 18.6 | 16.3% | 169 | 3.74% | 215 | 4.75% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 18.0 | 14.9% | 154 | 2.84% | 203 | 3.74% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 14.1 | 13.5% | 140 | 2.81% | 187 | 3.76% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 18.7 | 16.2% | 168 | 2.48% | 215 | 3.17% |
| 60-69 | 17 | 16.7 | 13.8% | 143 | 2.26% | 183 | 2.89% |
| 70+ | 12 | 14.6 | 12.4% | 128 | 2.02% | 147 | 2.32% |
| All ages | 80 | 114.6 | 100% | 1036 | 2.29% | 1333 | 2.95% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 10 2020 | 5626 | 35482 | 105 | 27 | 1076 | 1439 |
| November 11 2020 | 5833 | 35890 | 109 | 27 | 1225 | 1577 |
| November 12 2020 | 6018 | 36351 | 109 | 28 | 1383 | 1652 |
| November 13 2020 | 6184 | 36601 | 113 | 28 | 1444 | 1711 |
| November 14 2020 | 6226 | 36977 | 113 | 30 | 1316 | 1676 |
| November 15 2020 | 6285 | 37236 | 114 | 30 | 1250 | 1677 |
| November 16 2020 | 6449 | 37430 | 115 | 30 | 1275 | 1814 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.4 | 2.6% | 33 | 0.28% | 45 | 0.38% |
| 10-19 | 17 | 14.3 | 11.4% | 145 | 0.88% | 204 | 1.23% |
| 20-29 | 31 | 27.3 | 20.7% | 264 | 1.24% | 376 | 1.77% |
| 30-39 | 33 | 21.6 | 16.1% | 205 | 1.51% | 273 | 2.01% |
| 40-49 | 22 | 17.0 | 13.1% | 167 | 1.23% | 247 | 1.82% |
| 50-59 | 26 | 21.7 | 16.3% | 208 | 1.47% | 307 | 2.16% |
| 60-69 | 25 | 14.4 | 12.2% | 155 | 1.09% | 215 | 1.52% |
| 70+ | 7 | 10.9 | 7.7% | 98 | 0.75% | 147 | 1.13% |
| All ages | 164 | 130.6 | 100% | 1275 | 1.08% | 1814 | 1.53% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 10 2020 | 19494 | 252703 | 625 | 56 | 3655 | 4934 |
| November 11 2020 | 19956 | 253876 | 634 | 56 | 3945 | 5027 |
| November 12 2020 | 20590 | 254788 | 649 | 57 | 4383 | 5437 |
| November 13 2020 | 21055 | 255636 | 660 | 61 | 4287 | 5534 |
| November 14 2020 | 21348 | 257673 | 664 | 61 | 4385 | 5509 |
| November 15 2020 | 21720 | 259011 | 667 | 61 | 4425 | 5709 |
| November 16 2020 | 22223 | 259512 | 673 | 61 | 4416 | 6016 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 26 | 22.7 | 4.9% | 217 | 0.36% | 311 | 0.52% |
| 10-19 | 85 | 79.4 | 16.7% | 739 | 1.04% | 978 | 1.38% |
| 20-29 | 113 | 118.6 | 24.8% | 1094 | 1.05% | 1447 | 1.39% |
| 30-39 | 92 | 81.0 | 16.2% | 714 | 0.93% | 964 | 1.26% |
| 40-49 | 79 | 66.0 | 13.4% | 592 | 0.9% | 827 | 1.26% |
| 50-59 | 54 | 54.9 | 10.9% | 482 | 0.73% | 650 | 0.99% |
| 60-69 | 27 | 33.3 | 6.4% | 284 | 0.52% | 407 | 0.74% |
| 70+ | 27 | 33.6 | 6.7% | 294 | 0.6% | 432 | 0.88% |
| All ages | 503 | 489.4 | 100% | 4416 | 0.81% | 6016 | 1.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 10 2020 | 278843 | 1939444 | 13230 | 2395 | 53473 | 72532 |
| November 11 2020 | 285891 | 1949868 | 13507 | 2457 | 57028 | 75765 |
| November 12 2020 | 293388 | 1964779 | 13771 | 2515 | 61092 | 78392 |
| November 13 2020 | 301165 | 1975512 | 14045 | 2573 | 63098 | 81073 |
| November 14 2020 | 306311 | 1989320 | 14226 | 2625 | 62309 | 80941 |
| November 15 2020 | 312369 | 2001239 | 14381 | 2637 | 62445 | 83506 |
| November 16 2020 | 316758 | 2009148 | 14499 | 2649 | 60693 | 84462 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 172 | 249.7 | 4% | 2405 | 0.38% | 3294 | 0.51% |
| 10-19 | 515 | 739.4 | 11.8% | 7159 | 0.95% | 9603 | 1.27% |
| 20-29 | 708 | 1125.0 | 17.8% | 10823 | 1.43% | 14968 | 1.98% |
| 30-39 | 749 | 996.9 | 15.5% | 9393 | 1.24% | 13236 | 1.75% |
| 40-49 | 597 | 917.0 | 14.1% | 8577 | 1.23% | 12306 | 1.76% |
| 50-59 | 636 | 1007.4 | 15.4% | 9365 | 1.15% | 13160 | 1.61% |
| 60-69 | 553 | 739.3 | 11.4% | 6930 | 0.92% | 9520 | 1.26% |
| 70+ | 458 | 652.0 | 10% | 6040 | 0.94% | 8374 | 1.31% |
| All ages | 4389 | 6426.9 | 100% | 60693 | 1.04% | 84462 | 1.45% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 196.3 | 216.1 | 229.3 | 145.4 | 128.6 | 34.2% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 239.3 | 111.4 | 92.1 | 43.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 294.6 | 114.6 | 58.3 | 49.2% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 153.4 | 123.2 | 176.7 | 130.6 | 95.6 | 29% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 137.6 | 139.3 | 489.4 | 306 | 29.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 145.1 | 126.9 | 197.7 | 6426.9 | 4989.7 | 35.3% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 7.7 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.46 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-07 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2614"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges